人民币叩动储备货币大门

The internationalisation of China’s renminbi faces its stiffest test yet as the International Monetary Fund debates whether to endorse the “redback” as a reserve currency alongside the dollar, euro, yen and sterling.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)正在就是否接纳中国的人民币，将其作为美元、欧元、日元和英镑之外的储备货币开展辩论。这一争论令这种“红色底色”货币的国际化进程面临有史以来的最严峻考验。
人民币叩动储备货币大门
Becoming a constituent in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket would be a big step forward for the currency, which remains tightly controlled by Beijing. Economist Louis Gave of GaveKal Dragonomics likens the move to Japan’s currency liberalisation in the 1980s and the subsequent run-up in yen assets.

对于依然受到中国政府严格控制的人民币来说，加入IMF特别提款权(Special Drawing Rights)货币篮子将是一大进展。龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)经济学家路易斯•加夫(Louis Gave)把这一事件与上世纪80年代日本货币汇率的自由化及日元资产随后的上涨相比拟。
“Very quickly, global equity and bond investors were chasing their own tails, pushing up the value of the yen together with Japanese equity and bond valuations to regular new highs.” (From which, of course, they subsequently retreated as the bubble imploded.)
“在极短时间内，全球股市和债券投资者就进入了自我推升的循环之中，将日元汇率连同日本股票及债券的价格，推升至新的一贯性的高点。”（当然，随着泡沫的破裂，它们后来已从这一高点回落。）
However, the rewards for Beijing would be more than simply financial: acquiring SDR rights would be a powerful boost to its geopolitical ambitions.
不过，对于中国政府来说，由此带来的回报或许不仅仅在金融方面：获得特别提款权，可能会大大提升中国政府的地缘政治野心。
“For China, SDR basket inclusion is symbolic to global recognition of its rise in status,” Paul Mackel, head of Asia forex research at HSBC, wrote in a recent report. “The very stringent requirements for currency inclusion in the SDR serve as a quality assurance to global users that the currency in question is indeed very liquid and stable as a store of value.”
汇丰银行(HSBC)亚洲外汇研究部门主管保罗•梅克尔(Paul Mackel)最近在一份报告中写道：“对中国来说，人民币加入特别提款权货币篮子，是中国地位获得全球认可的一种象征。货币纳入特别提款权需要满足非常严格的要求。这种要求对全球用户来说是一种品质上的保证，表示他们关心的货币作为价值储存手段确实具备非常好的流动性和稳定性。”
That will feed into the IMF’s deliberations. “The crux of the matter is that this is ultimately going to be decided on political rather than economic merits,” says Eswar Prasad, economics professor at Cornell University and former China country director for the IMF.
这一事实令IMF在这个问题上愈发谨慎。曾任IMF中国事务主管的康奈尔大学(Cornell University)经济学教授埃斯瓦尔•普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示：“这件事的症结在于，此事最终将由政治决定，而不是由经济收益决定。”

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